Sunday Times online (23/1/08) — 01/24/2008
MBEKI WARNED 10 YEARS AGO OF ELECTRICITY CRISIS

The South African government was warned 10 years ago that the country's electricity demand would exceed its generation capacity by 2007 (see 1998 White Paper on the Energy Policy of the Republic of South Africa). The 110-page document warned that 'Eskom's present generation capacity surplus will be fully utilised by about 2007'. The document added: 'Timely steps will have to be taken to ensure that demand does not exceed available supply capacity and that appropriate strategies, including those with long lead times, are implemented in time.'

President Thabo Mbeki has admitted now that the Eskom paper was right and he was wrong. The country is in an electricity crisis, with outages becoming more frequent and the public becoming angrier. A popular radio station recently broadcast an outage joke: 'What is the difference between the Titanic and South Africa? The Titanic sank with the lights on'. This joke was broadcast on the 14th day of electrical power cuts.

A report in Johannesburg's Financial Mail (see here) says:
 
'The cost to the economy of rolling black-outs will take some time to calculate. But already some economists are confidently declaring government's 6% growth target impossible, thanks to the lack of power capacity. While the economy sweats from a lack of power, hundreds of billions of rand will have to be invested rapidly to get SA's electricity capacity back to a level that comfortably meets demand. And despite huge spending that's only going to happen in five years' time.

'One impact is an immediate loss of output as factories are forced to stop production. But a more fundamental impact is on investor confidence. The blackouts have highlighted the acute shortage of skills and resources to drive SA's R420bn infrastructure plan, which includes government and parastatal expenditure over the next three years. At a time when the country is embarking on its most ambitious building programme to date - not just of power stations, but also of infrastructure for transport, the 2010 soccer World Cup and the private sector, the lack of resources and skills looks set to cap growth for some time to come'.

'Our forecast for growth this year was 4%-4,5%', says a leading analyst. 'Now it's at the lower end of the scale. Six percent growth leading up to 2014 looks like a bit of a pipe dream'.

The public voice
A newspaper reader writes: 'From 1994 Power to 2007 No Power. Eskom [the monopoly power utility – ed] has run out of power and we will suffer, as it cannot do anything about it for seven to eight years. A columnist writes: 'The Eskom farrago underlines the extent to which President Thabo Mbeki's nine year tenure has been such a comprehensive disaster, both for his party, the ANC, and South Africa. (See here).

'Most amusing cartoons keep coming out. The one which I liked showed three pictures next to each other, the first a white fist clenched with 1948 Power as the caption. The next a black fist with 1994 Power and the last with an open hand, of light colour, reading 2007 No Power.
 
'Last night we cooked our supper at 5pm, leaving it in the warmer; the power went off at 6.15 until 10pm, so we were able to have warm food and then listen to the battery radio. So far these last two weeks we have been without electricity for three to five hours a day.

Time that lift
On Radio 702 [independent of the state broadcaster and government mouthpiece, the SABC – ed], David Sullivan is running a programme asking people to phone in with information as to how they manage to cope. He made the point that you must look at your watch as you enter a lift, since in Sandton [the business district in Johannesburg], the power is cut on the hour. He was saved from spending two hours in the lift today by doing this!

Power stations and the arms deal
'I can only think that the government could not afford to start putting up. power stations because of the arms deal and the enormous amount of money they have spent on it. Development of new power stations is now taking time, as the government has to shop around with overseas suppliers to find out who will give the biggest bribe. The White Paper which stated we would be out of power by 2007 was before the Cabinet in 1999. Ho hum'.